理性分析,UPS6转降多哈着陆成功的可能性

By 诺坎普的音符 at 2016-02-06 12:53:39 • 4018点击 • 1收藏

多哈机场位于第一次火警发出100英里,而折返迪拜航程207英里,空管不需要其他飞机传话,能输入ILS截获,火势没有疯狂蔓延损坏机长氧气供应,成功着陆可能性多大,机长的决定又多少影响了飞机的命运。

20 回复 | 直到 2016-02-25 14:58:18

估计也不太适合,毕竟下降率不足(就是转向也来不及,这不是空优战斗机,这是满载且着火的民航运输机,结构承受不了剧烈机动的变型压力的),多哈的五边区需要向南绕才能降吧?那样的话最後的降落会比在迪拜更危险吧?

saviliana at 2016-02-06 14:38:32
1

@saviliana 你貌似很专业啊

江户川柯南 at 2016-02-07 08:18:31
2

为啥你们都只根据一个纪录片就进行讨论?调查报告里面已经讨论过了

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-08 00:50:17
3

Doha Diversion
The investigation examined the possible outcome of an alternative scenario of diverting to DOH at the first indication of the fire. From the point where the diversion to Doha was advised there were 100 track miles to DOH. A performance analysis based on a 3°-4° descent angle and a descent speed of 300kts, indicate that from the notification until overhead DOH could have been achieved in approximately 17 minutes. Adding time for speed reduction and radar vectoring to the approach configuration, approximately 20 minutes would have been required.
Assuming the systems failure timeline remained linear, a similar level of controllability problems would have been apparent, including the oxygen supply problem and the elevator and speed brake problems identified earlier.
Additionally, the landing gear would not have been able to extend unless the crew used the manual gear extension procedure. How an auto landing without landing gear would have concluded is not known.79 The aircraft was within 20,000 lbs of the take-off fuel, fully loaded and in all probability would have made a wheels up landing.

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-08 00:50:35
4

A descent, based on the fire suppression methodology of venting airflow and depressurisation of the cargo hold to reduce the available oxygen, could have exacerbated the fire, accelerating the cascading failure scenarios and the cascading failures.
However, it is clear that a major difficulty faced by the crew was a consequence of the course change back to DXB. Once the smoke prevented the crew from changing radio frequencies, the communications, navigation, and surveillance difficulties increased. On a course to Doha, the flight would have been in direct contact with BAE-C, and if relays were required as the airplane descended toward the airport, direct landline communication between BAE-C and Doha Approach would have greatly simplified the radio communication. ATC radar surveillance and coordination would also have been simplified. The SSR data would have been available to the ATCO and there would have been more available ambient light due to the longitude of Doha.

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-08 00:50:58
5

Analysis of the diversion to DOH and the likely outcome is speculative as the crew incapacitation and smoke/fumes in the cockpit would have prevailed as the rate of failure on the timeline of the failures was linear regardless of the destination. In addition, the aircraft control was seriously compromised by the fire and consequential events, a factor that was not apparent to the crew as they could not view the primary instruments, or the and alert and notification display. The likely outcome of the diversion to DOH is therefore inconclusive, although the communication and task saturation issues experienced by the remaining pilot would have been negated by a DOH diversion. The communications difficulties with the relay aircraft/BAH-C/EACC/DXB chain of events was the result of the course change toward DXB.

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-08 00:51:48
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Ditching Option
The option to ditch was reviewed during the simulator sessions in Seattle80. Although feasible, the inability to see the instruments, particularly the radar altitude or outside of the cockpit window was problematic. The control of the aircraft descent with the AP was another issue that was unresolved.
Attempting to ditch using the auto flight functions was possible, however the last five hundred feet managing the rate of descent, attitude, speed and gauging the sea state in all probability precluded this as an option.
This exercise was inconclusive.

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-08 00:52:42
7

TLDR:

1. 时间不够

2. 氧气控制刹车全是问题

3. 起落架不能用,自动降落比这种坠毁能好多少很难说

4. 何况飞机还满载油

5. 要是让飞机失压 搞不好火更大

6. 我们还没算上通讯必须靠中转呢

7. 外面毛都看不见 迫降能好到哪去也很难说

beining ACI中文字幕组 at 2016-02-08 01:35:19
8

这一集看得我最揪心。。。。。。唉。

tiane12 at 2016-02-11 12:49:36
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从结局看,飞机应该最终还是坠毁在跑道上,那么问题就可以简单化,为什么在跑到上无法成功降落?首先一个原因在于速度还是过快,其次没有起落架,这个直接导致飞机落地姿势不正确,最后还要结合油料过多,视野太差等等,而这些原因的主要问题在于:大火烧毁了手动控制系统和机长过早失能。副驾驶整体表现中规中矩,但并不足以面对危机。纵观整个过程,就是有一个疑问,机长怎么会这么早就挂了??他就不能提前离开位置往后使用备用呼吸器吗?不过片中调查组最后的建议还是很有道理的,努力降低飞机舱内火灾对主要线路的影响,还有及早监测发现火灾苗头!

espresso8888 at 2016-02-13 19:58:31
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@espresso8888 机组怎么可能会想到氧气系统竟然会挂掉,等到机长发现吸不到氧气的时候一切都太迟了,这些烟雾不是一般的毒

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-15 03:27:28
11

现在国内联邦和UPS都不允许个人向国外快递带电池的产品

vefild at 2016-02-15 08:03:28
12

@南方航空b777 因为很多人根本没意识到“事故调查报告讨论过这个问题”吧。

回归原始资料确实是一项必要的工作。

gypbrf at 2016-02-15 20:36:32
13

@gypbrf 嗯,个人觉得要深入讨论这类事件必须得看报告,像瑞航起火的那次我也大概翻看过报告,其实讲的已经非常清楚了。当然国内伊春这些简直无解……

南方航空b777 at 2016-02-16 05:16:19
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调查报告中说如果采用多哈-中继机-UPS的通信方式而不是多哈-巴林-中继机-UPS的方式可以更省时间,并减少传话导致的信息丢失,有一定道理。

frederichi at 2016-02-18 19:53:02
15

个人觉得直飞 多哈,最后成功率也不会很高,最多10%左右吧。因为飞 多哈 要做的事比飞 迪拜 多了去了,查看多哈机场图什么的,机长可能出于对 迪拜机场 的熟悉程度考虑,才选择回飞 迪拜 吧。

PS:仍然是个人觉得,剧集里因为不可能完全还原当时的状况,所以烟是白色的,实际情况机舱里的烟应该是黑色的毒烟,记得前几季里不是说过,毒烟不到2?还是3分钟就能把人搞定么?(英国航空公司?)估计机长全神贯注驾驶飞机,氧气没了拖了一会,也就是这么一会,挂了。。。。

ppoison at 2016-02-19 14:01:54
16

外行提一个问题,在这种情况下为什么飞行员不能将飞机降低到安全高度后打开或击碎驾驶舱侧面的玻璃(如果可以的话),也许能将毒烟抽出且灌入氧气。这样可行吗?

leeway82 at 2016-02-19 15:00:05
17

@leeway82 火会烧得更大。。。不过我就不懂了,为什么舱内氧气烧光了,火还不灭。

aj233 at 2016-02-20 10:05:25
18

@aj233 锂电池起火可以不需要氧气的,电池正负极就分别自带了氧化剂和还原剂,而且正极的氧化剂比氧气强多了。所以只要电池短路了就自发快速反应起来,释放足够多的热把机舱内的结构破坏掉。

ccmezxt at 2016-02-23 16:24:22
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@ccmezxt 涨知识了~

aj233 at 2016-02-25 14:58:18
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